INTRODUCTION
I remember that it was the mid of September 2008 when the clamorous news regarding the economic turbulence, emerging from US and encompassing the European countries, were capturing big space in the international media. Indian economists, government, leaders and even media were silent on the issue of apprehending the turmoil’s transition to Indian economy. They seemed not worried about the predicament prevailing abroad beyond Indian boundaries despite their being well aware of the economic contagium and the economic contagiousness among world economies especially in this globalization era. They were perhaps over confident on account of the rising inflation rate and the achieved appreciably high growth rate.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2008
As per the Economic Outlook issued in July 2008, the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) of the Indian Prime Minister was of the view that the Indian economy would be able to grow by 7.7 % in 2008 – 09. At that time, the Council had opined that while a large part of the sub-p
This is Economic Collapse...Wake Up and Remember
rime losses had been accounted for, further setbacks were possible in the months to come and conditions were unlikely to stabilize before early 2009. The outcome in the first half of 2008 – 09 was broadly along the lines expected by the Council in July. Not only this, but Finance Minister P. Chidambaram was so confident up to the last week of Oct. 2008 that he did not even slightly hesitate to declare at Sivaganga (Tamilnadu) on Oct. 25 that India would not be hit by recession and it would sustain an 08 % (more than 7.7 % as estimated by the above said EAC in its economic outlook submitted in the month of July) growth rate this year despite the global financial crisis.
CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS
It took though no longer span of time than mere one month when Mr. Chidambaram accepted the emergence of a temporary slowdown in Indian economy. On 24 November 2008, while briefing the media after the meeting with CEO’s, he said that India must be prepared for a temporary slowdown in its economy because of the global financial meltdown. But, he again commented contrarily on Dec. 16 saying, “India is nowhere near recessionâ€. However he added that Indian economy had been impacted by the global meltdown. Here in this comment Mr. Chidambaram accepted the global meltdown impacting the economy on one hand while, simultaneously, regarded the economy recession devoid on the other. It is worth noted here that Mr. Chdambaram made this statement while being in chair as Finance Minister and the statement came after a number of events like three block-closers observed by Tata Motors, three days week being observed by Ashok Leyland, rapidly falling inflation rate, falling banking rates, dismissal of 2.5 % workforce in Wipro, loss of 65000 jobs in 121 surveyed export oriented units etc. (making the slowdown amply clear) had already come about in Indian economy well before Dec. 16. Moreover, the effect of economic depression, starting from America, Europe and other countries of the world, had become clear in Indian economy, too, up to the month of October. Before the beginning of October a decreasing trend started in the export business, the industrial production index and the revenue of indirect taxes, especially the production tax (excise duty). The GDP also decreased during the second quarter as compared to that in the first quarter of the financial year 2008-09. The total export of the country, in the month of October 2008, remained 12.1 % less than that in October 2007. Industrial production index also observed a 0.4 % decrease in that month. The production tax (excise duty) revenue in October 2008 became 8.7 % less than that in October 2007 and the growth rate of FDP in the second quarter (July to September 2008) was 7.6 % as against 7.9 % in the first quarter. Having felt the incoming of depression, the Government and RBI started taking preventive measures. RBI took steps for bringing the interest rates down and the government provided relief to industries by lowering the rates of production tax. However, the industrial sector felt all the so far taken measures (including the last bailout of Rs 3000 billion on December 09, 2008, too) insufficient and therefore was demanding one more package.
On the other hand, Hindustan, Hindi Daily, Dec.15, 2008, states that contrary to the above Mr. P. Chidambaram, as the finance minister of India, in the meeting of World Economic Forum, refused to accept the presence of depression in Indian economy. I can’t understand why Mr. Chidambaram makes contradicting versions and accepts not the things ingenuously. All the same, I appreciate that by doing so he presents himself as a true Indian politician. Leaving aside the (whatever) disingenuous comments of Mr. Chidambaram, there are but enough grounds for us not only to believe but to prove that Indian economy stands now encompassed well by depression, though because of the global meltdown.
REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2008 – 09
Finally the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India submitted the second report on the ‘Review of Indian Economy 2008 – 09 on Jan. 23. Executive Summery of the report accepts the impact of global economic and financial crisis in Indian economy when it reads as ‘the direct impact of funding constraints on the investment plans of Indian corporates and hence on growth and job creation, together with the second order effects of this development, coupled with the compression in export markets and the second order effects on this count, are the two principal channels through which the impact of the global financial and economic crisis are being felt in India’. The summery further reads as ‘India and perhaps China, would have a difficult time in the first part of the year, but should be able to show a pickup in growth in the last quarter of 2009, if not earlier’. The Council, vide its said report, expects that in the financial year 2009 – 10, the Indian economy is likely to remain relatively weak in the first quarter (April–June) and slowly pick up thereafter and the economy would show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half of the fiscal year (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) assuming some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. Overall, the Council assesses that growth in 2009 – 10 would be between 7.0 and 7.5 % or some what above that, with the first half of the year averaging growth close to 7.0 % and the second half an average growth of close to 7.5 % or higher. The summery reveals that it has been apprehended in the report that the merchandise trade deficit is likely to touch historic highs despite the decline in oil prices. But the Council expects that it is likely to be offset to a large extent by higher net invisible earnings.
As regards to the inflation rate, the report states that WPI inflation peaked at close to 13 per cent in August 2008. Consumer price inflation continued to rise to 11 per cent in October and November due to price increase in primary foodstuff. The Council expects that the WPI inflation rate for manufactured goods is likely to fall to 4 per cent in February and fall further by the end of March 2009 and this falling trend may continue for a few months into the next fiscal year due to the base effect, given that a large part of the price surge happened between March and June of 2008. However, inflation in primary foods is stated to likely remain elevated at near about 8 %. The report also expects that inflation in energy prices will be negative, as will be that in some non-food primary articles like iron ore. Overall the headline WPI inflation rate is likely to go down to near about 4 % by the end of February or the beginning of March, with a potential for more declines after that. CPI inflation will also fall, but the extent of the fall is unlikely to match that for WPI, considering the expected higher rate of food inflation and its larger weight in the consumer price indices.
All the same, the Council is of the view that the present crisis has come upon the Indian economy at a point of time where several of its components are in relatively strong shape. It opines that Indian enterprises have learnt the hard lessons of the importance of managing business and financial risks, and are thus to that extent in a better position to ride out the storm of this crisis. Indian banks have also gone through a transformational process. Whatever deterioration in asset quality the present crisis brings in its awake, Indian banks today are better prepared to deal with it than at any time in their history. On Jan. 23, 2009, in Singapore, Mr. Om Prakash Bhatt, Chairman, SBI, while speaking on ’60 years of Indian Republic and future challenges’, also presented the same opinion by saying that Indian banks are safe in the present time of world depression despite here the banks of the world’s big economies are collapsing. He further added that the Indian banks are in a strong position on account of their managerial skill of world level which they had well achieved when doors for foreign banks were opened in Indian economy.
Going through the executive summery of the report, one can conclude that the Council though accepts that the economic crisis (named as Depression 2008) has encompassed Indian economy but it believes the situation to be temporary. Therefore the Council confidently speaks of the Indian economy likely and rather believably to show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) of the present fiscal year. The confidence of the Council is based on its belief regarding some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. I don’t agree with the optimistic stand of the Council. Nor I am aware of whether the reason of the Council’s being so optimistic is a political strategy or an economic analysis. Moreover, contrary to the conclusion and the opinion of the Council mentioned in the said summery, some big organizations like World Bank, IMF and National Association of Business Economists (of America), have revealed in their separately carried on surveys that the prices of necessary commodities would go down by up to 23 % in 2009. First time in the last two and a half decades the world may face a decrease in the world growth rate and the trade pool. On the basis of a survey of 185 countries, the World Bank has estimated, in its report titled as World Economic Situation and Prospects that in the first half of 2009 unemployment would be the biggest problem before the world. In addition to this, ILO report entitled The Global Wage Report 2008-09 holds that difficult times lie ahead for the world’s 1.5 billion wage earners. The report further states, “Slow or negative economic growth, combined with highly volatile food and energy prices, will erode the real wages of many workers, particularly the low-wage and poorer households. The middle classes will also be seriously affectedâ€. The report warns that tensions are likely to intensify over wages. Based on the latest IMF growth figures, the ILO forecasts that the global growth in real wages will at best reach 1.1 per cent in 2009, compared to 1.7 per cent in 2008, but wages are expected to decline in a large number of countries, including major economies.
CONCLUSION
Indian economy can’t remain untouched by any economic turmoil in the rest of the world. The present economic slowdown in Indian economy also is an aftermath of the recession prevailing in almost all big economies of the world. Therefore, the conclusions made and inferences drawn by some big organizations like World Bank, IMF, National Association of Business Economists (of America) and ILO on the basis of extended survey and analysis of the world economies are not only applicable to Indian economy but they are believable, too, at least more than those drawn by national agencies like ‘Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India’ from their own national level surveys. The above said big organizations have not given any indication towards their being expectant regarding start of economic upswing from the third quarter (Sept. to Dec.) of 2009 and onward. Hence the world economic scenario may rather worsen throughout the present fiscal year.
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V P Singh
I describe how to use tener + que + infinitivo and hay + que + infinitivo to express obligation. I will also give you a chance to quiz yourself along the way.
Tension, stress, anxiety, depression, and other disorders are a gift of the modern world to all of us. Our ancestors did not know the meaning of these words. But all of us suffer from them some time in our life? Quiz yourself about your tension. If you are tense, you should get out of it as soon as possible otherwise the tension will one day make your life very sad? How to find that out? Let us quiz ourselves.
Think of yourself when you get up. Do you get up with a spring in your body and smile on your face? Or do you hate waking up? Or when you get up, your mind is full of the incomplete work? Think about what commonly happens when you get up in the morning. That gives us an indication about the tension. If we do not get up with a cheery heart that means that tension has overwhelmed us. That is not good. One day that will show as a stress related disease and some of them are very dangerous.
Quiz yourself while you are driving to the office or traveling by the train. Are you carefree? Are you enjoying the sights around? Or you are looking at your watch after every five minutes and thinking of the day ahead and so much to finish? You can understand what I am saying, is it not so? Unfortunately all the beautiful sights are lost to us, because most of us do not live in the present. We live in the past and the future. The guilt of the past actions and the expectations of future problems overwhelm our present moment. We do not cross the bridge when it comes. We cross it hundreds of times in our imagination. Quiz your lifestyle and if you realize that you are living a tense life, try to relax and take it easy.
CD Mohatta
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Teen suicide is becoming more common every year in South America. In fact, only car accidents and homicides (murders) kill more people between the ages of 18 and 30, making suicide the third leading cause of death in teens and overall in youths ages 14 to 22 years old.
Thinking About Suicide It's common for teens to think about death to some degree. Teens' thinking capabilities have matured in a way that allows them to think more deeply - about their existence in the world, the meaning of life, and other profound questions and ideas. Unlike kids, teens realize that death is permanent. They may begin to consider spiritual or philosophical questions such as what happens after people die. To some, death, and even suicide, may seem poetic (consider Romeo and Juliet, for example). To others, death may seem frightening or be a source of worry. For many, death is mysterious and beyond our human experience and understanding.
Thinking about suicide goes beyond normal ideas teens may have about death and life. Wishing to be dead, thinking about suicide, or feeling helpless and hopeless about how to solve life's problems are signs that a teen may be at risk - and in need of help and support. Beyond thoughts of suicide, actually making a plan or carrying out a suicide attempt is even more serious.
What makes some teens begin to think about suicide - and even worse, to plan or do something with the intention of ending their own lives? One of the biggest factors is depression. Suicide attempts are usually made when a person is seriously depressed or upset. A teen who is feeling suicidal may see no other way out of problems, no other escape from emotional pain, or no other way to communicate their desperate unhappiness.
The Link Between Depression and Suicide
The majority of suicide attempts and suicide deaths happen among teens with depression. Consider these statistics about teen suicide and teen depression: about 1% of all teens attempts suicide and about 1% of those suicide attempts results in death (that means about 1 in 10,000 teens dies from suicide). But for adolescents who have depressive illnesses, the rates of suicidal thinking and behavior are much higher. Most teens who have depression think about suicide, and between 15% and 30% of teens with serious depression who think about suicide go on to make a suicide attempt.
Keep in mind that most of the time for most teens depression is a passing mood. The sadness, loneliness, grief, and disappointment we all feel at times are normal reactions to some of the struggles of life. With the right support, some resilience, an inner belief that there will be a brighter day, and decent coping skills, most teens can get through the depressed mood that happens occasionally when life throws them a curve ball.
But sometimes depression doesn't lift after a few hours or a few days. Instead it lasts, and it can seem too heavy to bear. When someone has a depressed or sad mood that is intense and lingers almost all day, almost every day for 2 weeks or more, it may be a sign that the person has developed major depression. Major depression, sometimes called clinical depression, is beyond a passing depressed mood - it is the term mental health professionals use for depression that has become an illness in need of treatment. Another form of serious depression is called bipolar disorder, which includes extreme low moods (major depression) as well as extreme high moods (these are called manic episodes).
Though children can experience depression, too, teens are much more vulnerable to major depression and bipolar illness. Hormones and sleep cycles, which both change dramatically during adolescence, have an effect on mood and may partly explain why teens (especially girls) are particularly prone to depression. Believe it or not, as many as 20% of all teens have had depression that's this severe at some point. The good news is that depression is treatable - most teens get better with the right help.
It's not hard to see why serious depression and suicide are connected. Serious depression (with both major depression and bipolar illness) involves a long-lasting sad mood that doesn't let up, and a loss of pleasure in things you once enjoyed. It also involves thoughts about death, negative thoughts about oneself, a sense of worthlessness, a sense of hopelessness that things could get better, low energy, and noticeable changes in appetite or sleep.
Depression also distorts a person's viewpoint, allowing them to focus only on their failures and disappointments and to exaggerate these negative things. Depressed thinking can convince someone there is nothing to live for. The loss of pleasure that is part of depression can seem like further evidence that there's nothing good about the present. The hopelessness can make it seem like there will be nothing good in the future; helplessness can make it seem like there's nothing you can do to change things for the better. And the low energy that is part of depression can make every problem (even small ones) seem like too much to handle.
When major depression lifts because a person gets the proper therapy or treatment, this distorted thinking is cleared and they can find pleasure, energy, and hope again. But while someone is seriously depressed, suicidal thinking is a real concern. When teens are depressed, they often don't realize that the hopelessness they feel can be relieved and that hurt and despair can be healed.
What Else Puts Teens at Risk for Suicide?
In addition to depression, there are other emotional conditions that can put teens at greater risk for suicide - for example, girls and guys with conduct disorder are at higher risk. This may be partly because teens with conduct disorder have problems with aggression and may be more likely than other teens to act in aggressive or impulsive ways to hurt themselves when they are depressed or under great stress. The fact that many teens with conduct disorder also have depression may partly explain this, too. Having both serious depression and conduct disorder increases a teen's risk for suicide.
Substance abuse problems also put teens at risk for suicidal thinking and behavior. Alcohol and some drugs have depressive effects on the brain. Misuse of these substances can bring on serious depression, especially in teens prone to depression because of their biology, family history, or other life stressors.
Besides depressive effects, alcohol and drugs alter a person's judgement. They interfere with the ability to assess risk, make good choices, and think of solutions to problems. Many suicide attempts occur when a teen is under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Teens with substance abuse problems often have serious depression or intense life stresses, too, further increasing their risk.
Life Stress and Suicidal Behavior
Let's face it - being a teen is not easy for anyone. There are many new social, academic, and personal pressures. And for teens who have additional problems to deal with, life can feel even more difficult. Some teens have been physically or sexually abused, have witnessed one parent abusing another at home, or live with lots of arguing and conflict at home. Others witness violence in their neighborhoods. Many teens have parents who divorce, and others may have a parent with a drug or alcohol addiction.
Some teens are struggling with concerns about sexuality and relationships, wondering if their feelings and attractions are normal, if they will be loved and accepted, or if their changing bodies are developing normally. Others struggle with body image and eating problems, finding it impossible to reach a perfect ideal, and therefore having trouble feeling good about themselves. Some teens have learning problems or attention problems that make it hard for them to succeed in school. They may feel disappointed in themselves or feel they are a disappointment to others.
All these things can affect mood and cause some people to feel depressed or to turn to alcohol or drugs for a false sense of soothing. Without the necessary coping skills or support, these social stresses can increase the risk of serious depression and, therefore, of suicidal ideas and behavior. Teens who have had a recent loss or crisis or who had a family member who committed suicide may be especially vulnerable to suicidal thinking and behavior themselves.
Guns and Suicide Risk
Finally, having access to guns is extremely risky for any teen who has any of the other risk factors. Depression, anger, impulsivity, life stress, substance abuse, feelings of alienation or loneliness - all these factors can place a teen at major risk for suicidal thoughts and behavior. Availability of guns along with one or more of these risk factors is a deadly equation. Many teen lives could be saved by making sure those who are at risk don't have access to guns.
Different Types of Suicidal Behaviors
Teen girls attempt suicide far more often (about nine times more often) than teen guys, but guys are about four times more likely to succeed when they try to kill themselves. This is because teen guys tend to use more deadly methods, like guns or hanging. Girls who try to hurt or kill themselves tend to use overdoses of medications or cutting. More than 60% of teen suicide deaths happen with a gun. But suicide deaths can and do occur with pills and other harmful substances and methods.
Sometimes a depressed person plans a suicide in advance. Many times, though, suicide attempts are not planned in advance, but happen impulsively, in a moment of feeling desperately upset. Sometimes a situation like a breakup, a big fight with a parent, an unintended pregnancy, being harmed by abuse or rape, being outed by someone else, or being victimized in any way can cause a teen to feel desperately upset. In situations such as these, teens may fear humiliation, rejection, social isolation, or some terrible consequence they think they can't handle. If a terrible situation feels too overwhelming, a teen may feel that there is no way out of the bad feeling or the consequences of the situation. Suicide attempts can occur under conditions like this because, in desperation, some teens - at least for the moment - see no other way out and they impulsively act against themselves.
Sometimes teens who feel or act suicidal mean to die and sometimes they don't. Sometimes a suicide attempt is a way to express the deep emotional pain they're feeling in hopes that someone will get the message they are trying to communicate.
Even though a teen who makes a suicide attempt may not actually want or intend to die, it is impossible to know whether an overdose or other harmful action they may take will actually result in death or cause a serious and lasting illness that was never intended. Using a suicide attempt to get someone's attention or love or to punish someone for hurt they've caused is never a good idea. People usually don't really get the message, and it often backfires on the teen. It's better to learn other ways to get what you need and deserve from people. There are always people who will value, respect, and love you - sure, sometimes it takes time to find them - but it is important to value, respect, and love yourself, too.
Unfortunately, teens who attempt suicide as an answer to problems tend to try it more than once. Though some depressed teens may first attempt suicide around age 13 or 14, suicide attempts are highest during middle adolescence. Then by about age 17 or 18, the rate of teen suicide attempts lowers dramatically. This may be because with maturity, teens have learned to tolerate sad or upset moods, have learned how to get support they need and deserve, and have developed better coping skills to deal with disappointment or other difficulties.
Dr. Guillermo Pecci Saavedra M.d.